They're
on practically every corner. Some
people feel nervous at the gas pump.
Others are outraged. Everybody
knows prices are going nowhere but up.
Did you
know a gallon of gas weighs about 6 pounds - or 2.7 kilos? Almost all of it - 5 pounds, 2.2 kilos -
goes straight into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, out the exhaust pipe. And that substantial weight, for every
additional gallon or liter we burn, remains as CO2 for 100,000 years.
Don't
believe it? Stay tuned. We'll talk with David Archer, a top climate
scientist. He's the author of "The
Long Thaw". That's what we're
living in, the time all humans will live in, for ten times the length of all
history. In our second half hour.
First, I
want to know: when does the oil society seize up? What happens to the American way of life, if gasoline goes to $7
a gallon? That's what financial expert
Jeff Rubin predicts. Think that's
tough? What about $20 a gallon?
We're
going to dive right into an interview with Chris Steiner – and talk $20 a
gallon gas.
Remember
4 dollar a gallon gas last year? A lot of us pictured SUV's up on blocks in the
driveway - nobody wanted to give half their paycheck to the oil companies. GM and Chrysler went bankrupt in the exodus
from gas guzzlers.
Our guest
today says you ain't seen nothing yet, the pain at the pump will only get
worse. It seems everybody wants more
oil - even if the economy is in the tank.
Did you know China sold more cars than the U.S. last year? Right now, somebody in India is trying out
their first car, and a farmer in Brazil finally got that gas water pump. The oil economy is slithering around the world
- with big implications for our climate and our jobs.
Yet the
world Energy Agency says we can't get any more production. In fact, some of America's biggest suppliers
are facing declines. Mexico, America's
number two supplier, is struggling to fill budget gaps as the giant Cantarell
oil field runs out. A Houston oil
expert says even the Saudi's are struggling to keep up. It's called Peak Oil, and we're there.
Gas
prices can only go up. Is that a
looming disaster, or a good thing?
Christopher
Steiner is senior
staff reporter at Forbes magazine. His
new book is Twenty Dollars per Gallon: How the inevitable rise in the price of
gasoline will change our lives - for the better.
[Chis Steiner
interview 24 min 6 MB]
Jeff
Rubin is on the speech circuit, talking up his new book "Why Your World Is
About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller".
Recently he was the top man for CIBC investments - a branch of a
ginormous Canadian bank. Rubin was one
of the few who advised clients of the coming crash in real estate prices in
America - timely warning that must have saved his clients billions.
Now he's
worked through an analysis of oil availability, and Jeff Rubin sees major
changes coming to our society. Oil is
running out in the major fields, and new sources are more and more expensive to
develop. That's a symptom of Peak
Oil. And, Rubin claims, just the shock
of oil hitting almost $150 a barrel - was the real root cause of our current
depression. Suddenly, the far-flung
suburbs and the SUV's were doomed. All
the financial towers of wealth built on cheap oil expansion came tumbling down.
At the
same time, oil producing nations are using more and more of their own
production. Russians, Saudis and
Venezuelans are installing their own refineries and chemical industries - and
they embrace the car culture. They
nationalized their oil. Less is
available for export. Some of what's
left is in dangerous places.
The
answer, according to many powerful American institutions and corporations,
including the Pentagon - is more oil from the Canadian Tar sands. The ugliest, most polluting source on the
planet. It takes one barrel of oil
equivalent, to make three barrels of tar sands oil. One fourth of the energy is released into the atmosphere, as
global warming gases.
But Jeff
Rubin, in two speeches I've heard, didn't mention climate change once. He didn't need to. The high cost of production, whether it's tar sands or oil miles
deep under the Gulf, will keep chopping the carbon economy off at the
knees. Even a weak recovery could
stimulate oil demand all over the world.
Get ready for $200 dollar a barrel oil.
Here's a
quick clip of Rubin at
Speakerspotlight (youtube) on June 24th, 2009:
[clip 1]
Jeff
Rubin, a Canadian,
calls out the Tar Sands as an ecological disaster, and a financial wrecking
ball. For one thing, as you can tell,
he doesn't expect the North American car industry to come back, in anything
like the same production numbers.
The
bright side, if you see it that way - is that some industry will return to the
U.S. and Canada. The coming high cost
of oil will collapse globalization. The
closed steel mills and machine shops may return to North America, as shipping
costs go through the roof.
In fact,
this big banking financial guru has become a voice for relocalization. Not as a fad, but as the forced result of
declining oil and gas. Everything,
especially food, will take the shortest possible route, with the lowest energy
costs. In a way, the coming high price
of oil, painful as it will be, could help right the ship, could help us become
productive citizens who know one another.
I say, if
that prepares us for a low-carbon future, the transition of Peak Oil may help
prevent climate catastrophe as well.
The book is "Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot
Smaller" by Jeff Rubin. I've
contacted the publisher, to see if we get Jeff on Radio Ecoshock. He's worth a read and a listen.
Meanwhile,
let's follow that gallon of gas, from the pump, into eternity. Dr. David Archer, coming right up.
One odd
thing about us: humans imagine their legacy.
Think of Stone-henge and the pyramids.
I assumed our lasting sign would be nuclear waste - but it could be the
carbon from your last tank of gas. In
fact, our guest, David Archer explains "How Humans Are Changing the Next
100,000 Years of Earth's Climate."
Dr.
Archer teaches
geophysical sciences at the University of Chicago. In addition to respected scientific papers, he has written a
climate primer for students, followed by the award winning book "From Here
to Eternity: Global Warming in Geologic Time" published by Princeton
University Press in 2008. Like Alan
Robock, our guest next week, David Archer is a frequent contributor to the
web's top climate science blog, at realclimate.org.
[David Archer
interview] 6 MB 24 min
Then I go
into this
George Monbiot article, on why the near-term peak of our emission may
determine all....
There's
also a plug for the new movie "The
Age of Stupid" opening in a solar powered cinema in New York on
September 21st and 2nd. It hits another
422 movie houses in the U.S. - plus 45 countries around the world. You can go to the web site
www.ageofstupid.net to see where it plays near you - except Canada, where
screening rights have not been arranged, for some odd reason! Canadians are the third highest per capita
energy users in the world.
That's it
for Radio Ecoshock this week. Next week
we wrestle with the demons of geoengineering.
No more blue skies for you.
After decades of denial, the carbon lobby has a plan. We'll just block out the Sun. I'll talk with realclimate expert, Dr. Alan
Robock, plus Diana Bronson of the ETC Group.
Climate mechanics are ready to use your panic - and you don't need to
change a thing. Drive on out to a brand
new world.
Don't
forget our web site, Ecoshock.org. You can get our podcast, download all our
past shows, plus a bunch of other good green radio. No ads, no charge.
ecoshock dot org.
I'm Alex
- thanks for joining us this week.
Let's keep our cool.